Probability tricks
Tuesday, November 28th, 2006I’ve been working my butt off for the past several days trying to complete the latest stochastic processes homework, but that looks like a losing fight, so I’ve pretty much relaxed. Now I’m just doing it because every so often I learn a way to do something I thought was incredibly hard.
Example #1: Let
be a continuous random variable, and
be a random variable uniformly distributed on
; assume
and
are independent of each other. Calculate
where
is a fixed number. That is, find the cdf of the random variable
. I’m surprised it’s even possible to get a nice closed form solution to this, and sad to say the particular trick used to get it isn’t from me. It’s from one of the guys in the class, either Nathaniel or Yuan, or both. The basic idea is to:
- Find the pdf of the random variable
- Use the independence of
and
to find the joint pdf of
- The clever idea is here: use a transformation of random variables argument to find the joint pdf of
- Integrate out
to get the marginal distribution for
The answer, after working out all this stuff, is
Amazing. What’s even more amazing is that this is only one incidental calculation on the way to solving a larger problem. Perhaps there was a way to avoid this unpleasantness altogether?
Example #2: If
are independent uniformly distributed random variables on [0,1], then the pdf of the random variable
is
This one is easy to show, but nonetheless a neat result. In particular, it means the expected value of the random variable is
– not terribly intuitive.
functions with respect to Brownian noise:
is an orthonormal basis of
and
is a sequence of i.i.d.
r.v.s, so the integral is a Gaussian r.v. for each
. This definition does not seem to have much to do with the concept of measurement. Is this even well-defined? By the Riemann-Lebesgue lemma the sum converges, but apparently any o.n.b. can be used, so does changing it affect the integral? Despite the obscurity of its origins, I like the simple form of this integral.
, where
are the location, velocity, and momentum of the probe. In the ideal case, we know
where
is the force applied to the probe, so we can solve for
(note that this model doesn’t account for noise which is partially caused by the state
, noise is a function of
is in fact a stochastic process. Each elementary event
determines a different sample path. Therefore if
is such that the Lebesgue-Stieltjes integral is defined on each sample path (cadlag?), we can actually solve the above equation, and use it to calculate useful quantities. For instance, if
represents the time when the probe reaches the moon (
if it misses), then we can calculate the expected distance from the target point
, given a particular noise model:

. In this case, the level sets of
correspond to the wavefronts at different times; that is, the set
is the wavefront at time
represent the differential path of the light ray emitted from point
. This path is perpendicular to the wavefront it starts from, and has length
, so
identically and
on the boundary of a region
, then for
to the eikonal equation measures the distance from
. Prove, using linear algebra, that this decomposition cannot in general be computed with a finite number of basic matrix operations (mult, add).
into a matrix
which has orthonormal columns, and an upper-triangular invertible matrix
. Intuitively, the Q matrix is the result of applying the Gram-Schmidt orthonormalization process to the columns of
combines the columns of
to get back
factorization, A=
where
is unitary, and
is upper triangular. A full
zeros to the bottom of 
is a full-ranked skinny matrix, so has a QR decomposition:
.
given
is the same as minimizing it given
, which is the same as minimizing it given
(since
, remember
is a projection, so the
. So the minimum length vectors that satisfies
is simply
. Pretty neat.
. We jumped right in at Lebesgue outer measure, but considering that it’s on the syllabus, hopefully we’ll come back later after we develop Lebesgue theory to develop a more general theory of measure and integration. I like this approach: start with Lebesgue integration in
, and have an optional section on the theory in 