somewhere near the beginning.

Probability tricks

Filed under: Mathematics — Alex @ 12:39 am 11/28/2006

I’ve been working my butt off for the past several days trying to complete the latest stochastic processes homework, but that looks like a losing fight, so I’ve pretty much relaxed. Now I’m just doing it because every so often I learn a way to do something I thought was incredibly hard.

Example #1: Let V be a continuous random variable, and U be a random variable uniformly distributed on [0,t]; assume V and U are independent of each other. Calculate P[V(t-U) \leq x] where x is a fixed number. That is, find the cdf of the random variable V(t-U). I’m surprised it’s even possible to get a nice closed form solution to this, and sad to say the particular trick used to get it isn’t from me. It’s from one of the guys in the class, either Nathaniel or Yuan, or both. The basic idea is to:

  • Find the pdf of the random variable t-U
  • Use the independence of t-U and V to find the joint pdf of t-U,V
  • The clever idea is here: use a transformation of random variables argument to find the joint pdf of V(t-U), V
  • Integrate out V to get the marginal distribution for V(t-U)

The answer, after working out all this stuff, is P[V(t-U) \leq x] = \frac{1}{t} E[\frac{1}{V} \min(x, Vt)]. Amazing. What’s even more amazing is that this is only one incidental calculation on the way to solving a larger problem. Perhaps there was a way to avoid this unpleasantness altogether?

Example #2: If U_1, \ldots, U_k are independent uniformly distributed random variables on [0,1], then the pdf of the random variable \min(U_1, \ldots, U_k) is f(t) = k(1-t)^{k-1}. This one is easy to show, but nonetheless a neat result. In particular, it means the expected value of the random variable is \frac{1}{1+k}– not terribly intuitive.

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